Does An America-less “Coalition Of The Willing” Seem Promising For Europe?
By Luke Collins
We all saw President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance gang up on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a White House press conference on February 28. We saw Trump tell Zelensky that he’s ‘gambling with World War Three’, JD Vance being upset at Zelensky for not saying ‘thank you’ once at the meeting even though he had many times beforehand and reporters jibing at Zelensky for not wearing a suit. [1] UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a tough balancing act, but he has stepped up. On the 25th of February, he announced plans for the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 2027 despite the controversial decision to raise those funds by cutting overseas development aid from 0.5% to 0.3%. [2] Starmer has also been the driving force behind this ‘coalition of the willing’ hosting the countries involved in London two weeks ago.
The EU has also felt uneasy since the return of Trump. JD Vance sent a chilling message during his speech at the Munich Security Conference on the 18th of February stating that the biggest threat facing Europe ‘came from within’ and criticised the EU for ‘suppressing free speech’. [3] Trump’s stance on the Ukraine conflict has worried the EU greatly as his dismissal of the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO and willingness to give concessions to the Russians undermines the future of NATO. Trump insisted throughout the campaign that Europe needed to increase defence spending to 5% of their GDP and that they should not rely on the United States as part of his ‘America First’ policy. Trump’s distancing from the EU runs contrary to Starmer’s ‘relationship reset’ that has allowed him to form a ‘coalition of the willing’.
The coalition of the willing was mainly the idea of Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. It is comprised of EU and NATO member states, committed to defending Ukraine, even open to the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine. [4] The term ‘coalition of the willing’ is deliberate as there are members of NATO and the EU like Hungary that are sympathetic to Russia. The term has also been used before to refer to the countries who supported America’s invasion of Iraq in 2003. The idea of a ‘coalition of the willing’ was part of Starmer’s four point plan to end the war. Starmer said at the event in London on 2nd March that Europe was currently at a “crossroads in history” and that Europe “must do the heavy lifting” on defence. Contrary to Trump’s claim that the US has spent $200 billion more on Ukraine than Europe, the Kiel institute found that when all aid is counted, Europe has spent around $139 billion on Ukraine, $20 billion more than the US although the US is the largest single donor while the UK has in total spent $15.5 billon in aid to Ukraine. [5] Starmer’s other three points are keep increasing the economic pressure on Russia, ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and security and boost Ukraine’s defensive capabilities to deter any future invasion as well as promising to send in an additional £1.6 billion ($2 billion) in aid to Ukraine to buy over 5000 defence missiles. These air defence missiles will be built here at Thales, Belfast. [6]
17 world leaders attended the London summit, but the coalition is comprised of 18 states whose leaders (aside from Australia who have only recently committed to joining the ‘coalition of the willing’) all attended, mostly European nations such as Poland, Germany and Denmark. Present at the summit was European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who stressed the need to ‘re-arm Europe’, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte who stated that Europe needed to ‘stay in the fight as long as it has to continue’. [7] Some countries are exempt from sending troops such as Poland which borders Ukraine, and Finland which shares the longest EU border with Russia. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares also stated that it was ‘too early’ to think about deploying troops to Ukraine whereas Germany has not formed a government since last month’s election and outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. This summit was a big moment for Zelensky who stated that Ukraine felt “strong support” and acknowledged that this moment demonstrated “European unity at an extremely high level not seen for a long time”. [7]
So, what is the future of the ‘coalition’? There has been some division within it as Italy is now unwilling to engage. Starmer confirmed that this Thursday, 25 countries will meet to discuss peacekeeping operations in Ukraine and in a press conference taken before a virtual call with world leaders on Saturday, he called on Putin to stop ‘trying to delay’ peace and to ‘come to the table’ for peace negotiations. [8] In the virtual meeting, he highlighted the three areas the coalition of the willing will hold out on: strengthening Ukraine, defending any peace deal and keeping the pressure on Putin. This week, the G7 met in Canada where US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated he was ‘cautiously optimistic’ that a peace deal could be announced. Zelensky has accused Putin of ‘trying to drag out’ peace talks stating, “The world must understand that Russia is the only obstacle preventing peace.” [9] Putin has responded to demands for peace by stating that Russia troops will halt fighting if Ukraine is ‘demilitarised’ and has not accepted the proposed 30 day truce believing that any peace deal must “eliminate the root causes of this crisis” which he believes is NATO expansion and Ukrainian sovereignty. He states that Russian troops will spare Ukrainian troops if they surrender now, a statement echoed by Donald Trump who told American press that he told Putin to spare their lives. The coalition of the willing will be hoping that they are strong enough to guarantee a peace deal that protects Ukraine. According to Starmer, the coalition of the willing is growing and now seeks to move into an ‘operational phase’. [9]
References
[1] Rankin, D., “European Leaders Summit: A Turbulent Weekend For Ukraine”. The Gown, 3 Mar 2025. https://the-gown.com/2025/03/03/european-leaders-summit-a-turbulent-weekend-for-ukraine/
[2] Lawless, J., “UK to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, Starmer says before Trump meeting”. AP News, 26 Feb 2025. https://apnews.com/article/uk-defense-keir-starmer-ukraine-trump-7fb4a745af0dbe4deb2d8018ed6e3d7e
[3] Wintour, P., “JD Vance stuns Munich conference with blistering attack on Europe’s leaders”. The Guardian, 14 Feb 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/14/jd-vance-stuns-munich-conference-with-blistering-attack-on-europes-leaders
[4] Culbertson, A., “Western military chiefs set to meet to discuss ‘operational phase’ of Ukraine peace deal”. Sky News, 15 Mar 2025. https://news.sky.com/story/western-military-chiefs-set-to-meet-to-discuss-operational-phase-of-ukraine-peace-deal-13329053
[5] Ukraine Support Tracker, Kiel Institute. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
[6] “Historic £1.6bn deal provides thousands of air defence missiles for Ukraine and boosts UK jobs and growth”. Ministry of Defence, 2 Mar 2025. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/historic-16bn-deal-provides-thousands-of-air-defence-missiles-for-ukraine-and-boosts-uk-jobs-and-growth
[7] Wong, V., “Starmer announces ‘coalition of the willing’ to guarantee Ukraine peace”. BBC News, 2 Mar 2025. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vygkzkkrvo
[8] Bloom, D., “Ukraine allies plan meeting of military chiefs next week”. Politico, 15 Mar 2025. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-coalition-of-the-willing-military-chiefs-to-meet-on-thursday/
[9] Moench, M., “Military planning for Ukraine peace to begin, says Starmer”. BBC News, 15 Mar 2025. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ymrz8d21yo
