Israel and the US Vs. Iran – “Gambling With World War 3”?

By Luke Collins

“You’re gambling with World War 3” is what US President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during their meeting at the Oval Office on February 28th. Just over four months later and with the Ukraine conflict effectively being sidelined in world affairs, Trump now looks like the leader who is gambling with the prospect of starting a global conflict, deliberating whether to enter the USA into Israel’s war against Iran. Even after he left the G7 at Canada on the 17^th of June seemingly to be with his administration officials to make the decision, the day when asked about whether the US would get involved in the conflict, he responded “You don’t know. I may do it; I may not do it. Nobody knows what I want to do” [1] which confirms that not even Trump knows what Trump is going to do next. America did eventually enter the conflict on Israel’s side, carrying out air strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites on the 21^st of June, blindsiding Congress and maintaining presidential authority on foreign affairs.

This did not stop Congressional Republicans coming out in support of these attacks even though many had previously been opposed to US intervention in foreign wars. Some campaigned for US attacks on Iran despite not knowing much about Iran itself as Texas Senator Ted Cruz found out when conservative media personality Tucker Carlson pointed out during an interview that Cruz was unaware of Iran’s population or ethnicity. Trump posted on Truth Social that he had negotiated a ceasefire on the 23^rd of June but his vague wording and differing times on when the ceasefire would take effect for each side meant that mere hours later, Israel violated the phony ceasefire launching a strike on Tehran which led to Trump’s aggressive tirade the next day that neither side “know what the f*** they’re doing” [2]. It seems that despite the President’s best efforts, both sides are going to continue fighting until one side completely obliterates the other and forces their opponent to the negotiating table on their terms.

Since October 7^th, 2023, Israel has been engaged in a conflict over the Gaza strip, a narrow strip of land wedged between Israel and Egypt which is controlled by Hamas, a militant Palestinian group labelled as a terrorist organisation by many nations who wish to create a Palestinian state. This conflict which has resulted in the deaths of over 56,000 Palestinians and over 1,000 Israelis according to Gaza health officials [3]. Israel has been accused of genocide, ethnic cleansing and using starvation as a weapon of war by the International Court of Justice, the highest court in the world. An article published by Israeli news agency Haaretz revealed that IDF soldiers stationed at humanitarian aid distribution centres in Gaza were ordered to fire on civilians and there have been many instance of IDF soldiers killing Gazans looking for aid [4].

A background – half a century of tension

Iran has been at odds with the USA and Israel since 1979 when the US-backed Shah of Iran was deposed and Ayatollah Khomeini came into power, transforming Iran into an Islamic Republic that lives under Sharia Law meaning that religion and politics are intertwined and the country promotes traditional, conservative values in Islam. Iran’s government does not formally recognise Israel and sees Palestine as the only legitimate power in the West Bank. Ayatollah Khomeini referred to Israel as ‘Little Satan’ (as opposed to the US the ‘Great Satan’) and an illegitimate Zionist state and his successor Ali Khamenei, Iran’s current leader since 1989 has referred to Israel as a ‘cancerous tumour’. The destruction of Israel has long been a foreign policy objective for Iran. Iran has supported many Islamist military organisations such as the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), Hezbollah in Lebanon and even Hamas as part of its ‘Axis of Resistance’. In the 2006 Lebanon War, Israel fought against the Iranian backed Hezbollah and each country has supported different sides in the conflicts in Yemen and Syria. The growth of Iran’s nuclear program has proven to be an existential crisis for Israel since the establishment of the Islamic Republic (the program begun in 1957 under the Shah) due to Iran’s enrichment of uranium which they use to power nuclear plants but can also be used in the production of nuclear weapons.

Despite Netanyahu’s consistent claim since the 1990s that Iran is looking to build a nuclear bomb, Iran has not built a bomb or even created a nuclear weapons program. The threat of Iran building a nuclear weapon is what led President Barack Obama to negotiate the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015 which required Iran to keep its uranium enrichment levels at no more than 3.67%. However, Trump pulled America out of that deal in 2018 and since then, Iran has enriched 50 times more uranium to the extent it ‘s particles are close to 83.7% purity, near the 90% purity required to build a nuclear bomb. . The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found that Iran had failed to meet its nuclear obligations to limit its stockpile of Uranium [5]. After Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani in 2020, there was worry that the US and Iran might enter into a global conflict. The Trump administration tried to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran in May 2025 where Iran would limit its stockpile of Uranium in return for the US lifting sanctions Trump imposed on the country in 2018, but Israel’s recent actions have thrown this deal up in the air. In April 2024, there was a worry that perhaps Iran may involve itself in a conflict with Israel after an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria killed 12 officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) including two commanders; Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi. Iran retaliated by firing over 300 missiles into Israel, but these were mostly intercepted by a US-Israel coalition team and there were no further attacks.

An escalation – Israel and America attack

On the 13^th of June 2025, Israel launched surprise attacks on Iranian nuclear and military sites, including in Natanz, Iran’s largest uranium facility, killing many nuclear scientists and military leaders reasoning this as a pre-emptive strike to prevent Iran building a nuclear weapon. Iran responded by firing missiles at Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv, Israel’s two biggest cities and there was further retaliation until the 15^th of June as Israel fired missiles into Tehran, Iran’s capital. In total, 78 Iranian civilians were estimated to have been killed as a result of Israeli attacks whereas Israel experienced no civilian deaths. The provocation for Israel to escalate this proxy war seems to be the execution of a Mossad (Israel’s Secret Service) agent in April. Khamenei vowed that Iran would not allow Israel to “escape safely from this great crime they committed”. [6] It was unclear if the US was involved in these attacks as Trump had issued a warning to Israel to stop the attacks on Truth Social but an Israel official publicly stated that Israel had co-ordinated the attack with Washington. Netanyahu was planning regime change and there was talk that the US would back an Israeli attempt to overthrow the Ayatollah, a claim that had been disproven by Trump on the 15^th of June who claimed that he didn’t want to kill the Ayatollah ‘yet’. Four days later he was telling Iran that they had two weeks to ‘unconditionally surrender’.

On the 21^st of June, the US entered the war as mentioned previously, attacking three nuclear sites in Iran although there was debate over how much damage the US had caused to Iran’s nuclear program as while Trump claimed that the attacks had left Iran’s nuclear program “completely and totally obliterated”, US Defence Intelligence Agency reported that the attacks only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months [7]. Two days after the US strikes, Iran fired missile strikes against a US army base in Qatar which acts as a mediator between the two countries. Although no one was injured or killed, US leaders were shocked as Trump labelled the attacks “weak and pathetic”. The United Nations Security Council called an emergency session at the request of Iran calling for peace in the Middle East with UN chief Antonio Guterres warning that the region “stood on the brink of a deadly downward spiral” [8]. US actions have also come under criticism from their global rivals China and Russia while many global allies such as the UK have publicly backed their actions in Iran with Prime Minister Keir Starmer calling the attacks “necessary to alleviate the threat” posed by Iran and the EU’s foreign policy advisor Kaja Kallas reiterated that “Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon” [9]. As mentioned previously, Trump’s unprepared ceasefire has not lasted, and Iran and Israel’s conflict has resumed but no greater attacks have occurred since the 25^th of June.

As a result of this conflict, the Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA) reported that, by the eleventh day, there were 974 confirmed fatalities [10]. The attacks on Iran has breathed new life into other Islamic militant organisations such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen which has been under American attack since March. The United Nations Atomic Watchdog inspectors have left Iran after a new law passed criminalising international monitoring. Israel’s war against Gaza has continued as Netanyahu has recently rejected a proposed 60 day ceasefire. We do not know yet if Iran and Israel will reopen hostilities with each other but with the world on the brink of destruction every day, it looks increasingly likely that Iran and Israel will not oblige with a truce on anyone’s terms.

References

[1] Graham, C., Lau, S., Bachuga, H. (2025). “Iran and Israel launch more attacks as Trump weighs US involvement”. BBC News, 17 Jun 2025. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx23e4jz2g0t

[2] Sommerlad, J., (2025). “Trump says Iran and Israel ‘don’t know what the f*** they’re doing’ after ceasefire broken”. The Independent, 24 Jun 2025. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-israel-what-theyre-doing-b2775841.html

[3] Shurafa, W., Khaled, F., (2025). “More than 55,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war, Gaza health officials say”. AP News, 11 Jun 2025. https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/more-than-55000-palestinians-have-been-killed-in-the-israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-officials-say/

[4] Khoury, J., Hasson, N., Rozovsky, L., (2025). “At Least 70 Killed by IDF in Gaza, Including 28 Waiting for Aid, Amid Worsening Hunger, Officials Say”. Haaretz, 12 Jul 2025. https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2025-07-12/ty-article/.premium/idf-kills-70-gazans-including-28-waiting-for-aid-amid-worsening-hunger-officials-say/00000198-0017-d274-a39b-f73f2c750000

[5] UN News, (2025). “Atomic watchdog says Iran not complying with nuclear safeguards”. UN News, Peace and Security, 12 Jun 2025. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291

[6] PBS, (2025). “Iran launches scores of ballistic missiles in retaliation against Israel’s attack on Tehran”. PBS, 13 Jun 2025. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-launches-scores-of-ballistic-missiles-in-retaliation-against-israels-attack-on-tehran

[7] Hutzler, A., (2025). “‘Obliterated’: The firestorm over how Trump described damage to Iran nuclear sites”. ABC News, 25 Jun 2025. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obliterated-firestorm-trump-damage-iran-nuclear-sites/story?id=123201314

[8] Al-Jazeera, (2025). “Israel-Iran conflict: List of key events, June 22, 2025”. Al-Jazeera, 22 Jun 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/22/israel-iran-conflict-list-of-key-events-june-22-2025

[9] Chrisafis, A., (2025). “Alarm in Middle East over US strikes on Iran amid fears of widening conflict”. The Guardian, 22 Jun 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/22/global-alarm-at-us-strikes-on-iran-amid-fears-conflict-could-spiral-out-of-control

[10] HRANA, (2025). “The Eleventh Day of Israeli Strikes: Key Developments”. HRANA News Agency, 24 Jun 2025. https://www.en-hrana.org/the-eleventh-day-of-israeli-strikes-key-developments/