Oscar Bait: 2025 Predictions
By Johnny Ball and Amy Lonergan
The February cold rolls around again and brings with it the twice delayed and much maligned yearly Oscar awards. We thought we’d take a look at who’s propagandists and PR teams worked the hardest, who’s been overlooked, and who really deserves a small golden man collecting dust on their Hollywood candelabras.
Last month’s nominations coloured a quieter affair than is typical during the beginning of Oscar season as Los Angeles’ tragic wildfires continued to devastate the wider Californian hub. Though the worst is now over, billions are lost, and tens of thousands of homes lie in char and ruin in cinema’s spiritual home. The organisers have laid bare plans to reflect and respect those impacted in this year’s ceremony.
This year’s nominations reflect Hollywood’s evolving dynamics, coming in various shapes and orthodoxies led by a divergent triumvirate consisting of 3hr35min architecture epic The Brutalist, witchy fun and Ariana Grande sing-songs in Wicked, and the operatic French/Mexican queer crime drama Emilia Perez. Between them they share an ungodly 33 nominations and seek to wrestle and smooch Oscar statuettes, hoping to nullify threats by way of papal politicking in Conclave, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, and most-obviously: Robbie Williams-themed monkey madness in Better Man.
Paul Mescal sees himself snubbed for lead actor – although probably something to do with Gladiator 2’s inert execution, whilst Kneecap misses out in best international and best song categories in a due illustration of indie cinema oversight. Otherwise, the categories are open, the riders ready, the stage set. Lights, camera, action!
Best Picture:
Wicked
The Substance
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
A Complete Unknown
I’m Still Here
JB: Best picture is the BNOC and this year’s is one of the most open but frankly disappointing in recent years. I’ll be checking out if Wicked wins but knowing how The Oscar’s works, my pick is The Brutalist despite its brutal length.
AL: Based on sheer enjoyment levels I’m gunning for Anora, but I’m in agreement with Johnny; realistically the three-and-a-half-hour American epic will take best picture.
Best Lead Actor:
Timothee Chalamet; A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes; Conclave
Adrien Brody; The Brutalist
Colman Domingo; Sing Sing
Sebastian Stan; The Apprentice
JB: I’d really really really love Ray Fiennes to win this and the strongest competition for me comes from Adrien Brody’s remarkable Lazlo Toth, but Fiennes plays Cardinal Lawrence with a steel and deft reserved for the absolute great performances. I’d be surprised if either of these two didn’t win.
AL: The Oscars haven’t ever been subtle about their love for real-life portrayals. Timmy seems to be quickly becoming an Academy sweetheart and Sebastian Stan’s Trump was uncanny, though I think this will be Ralph Fiennes’ well-deserved year.
Best Lead Actress:
Mikey Madison; Anora
Fernanda Torres; I’m Still Here
Demi Moore; The Substance
Karla Sofia Gascon; Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo; Wicked
JB: I think this is maybe the most open category there is so I’m half stumped. Karla Gascon deserves great credit as the first trans woman to earn herself a nomination, Demi Moore is incredible, and Mikey Madison is about as kinetic and wieldy as possible to be on the screen in Anora. But because it’s my one to watch (and because she won a Golden Globe and shares the name of my childhood footballing hero), I’m going for Fernanda Torres for her compelling turn as Brazilian activist Eunice Paiva single-handedly managing grief and military coups in 1971 Rio De Janiero.
AL: I agree with Johnny – and a month ago, before the string of her racist tweets were unearthed, I would have gone as far to predict a Gascon win. Although the Academy hasn’t ever had a problem awarding controversial figures.
Regardless, The Substance was a career-defining role for Demi and I’m rooting for her win.
Best Supporting Actor:
Kieran Culkin; A Real Pain
Edward Norton; A Complete Unknown
Yura Borisov; Anora
Guy Pearce; The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong; The Apprentice
JB: Nice to see the Succession boys about the noms list. Guy Pearce is the most obvious choice for me – his role as twisted financier Van Buren in The Brutalist stinks of Oscar bait, but I’m picking Jeremy Strong to win for his turn as lacertian lawyer Roy Kohn in The Apprentice.
AL: Agreed. The Apprentice was one of my favourite films last year – it needs at least one win. There is too much competition for Sebastian Stan in leads, but I can see Jeremey Strong taking home his first Oscar this year.
Best Supporting Actress:
Zoe Saldana; Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande; Wicked
Isabella Rossellini; Conclave
Monica Barbaro; A Complete Unknown
Felicity Jones; The Brutalist
JB: Ariana Grande. Why not.
AL: Didn’t know I was comparing opinions with an Arianator. Who knows? Stranger things have happened.
Monica Barbara completely embodied the commanding Joan Baez and if it wasn’t so early on in her film career I think she would’ve had a good chance.
Although, Emilia Perez will secure a win in at least one category, and I think it’ll be this one. Saldana’s performance (singing and dancing included) was the strongest of out the five.
Best Director:
Brady Corbet; The Brutalist
Jacques Audiard; Emilia Perez
Sean Baker; Anora
Coralie Fargeat; The Substance
James Mangold; A Complete Unknown
JB: Brady Corbet is the obvious choice for this but don’t underestimate the competition from Sean Baker and Coralie Fargeat for their relentless and visceral direction in Anora and The Substance respectively. I’d really like to see Coralie Fargeat win.
AL: I’ve always been a fan of Sean Baker’s directorial style and with Anora he’s shown the academy he’s more than just the Indie King. Even with 6x the budget of his previous film – Red Rocket – Baker has been able to keep the same charming feel to Anora. Rooting for a Baker win.
Where to watch: ITV1. Monday 3rd March. 12am.
For you 9-5ers out there that don’t want to spend their Monday half-asleep at your desk, the awards will also be available for catchup on ITVX.
