The Future of Éire: Analysis of the 2024 General Election
Jess Donohue
The Irish general election for 2024 will take place on Friday November 29th, electing the 34th Dáil. This election could lead to a dramatic shift in Irish politics, with the growing criticism of the current Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Green Party coalition, Sinn Féin is experiencing a surge in popularity, meaning the party could shift from opposition to leadership. Similar to this, Aontú emphasises a focus on social and economic issues while offering a different viewpoint on several important topics and discussions in Ireland. Ireland’s attitude to important issues such as housing, healthcare, and climate action will be significantly shaped by this election. The result may also affect Ireland’s position on European trade, energy, and foreign policy measures as a significant EU member. Furthermore, the outcome might affect Ireland’s approach to Northern Ireland, particularly in the wake of Brexit and continuing discussions regarding reunification, which might become a top priority under Sinn Féin’s government.
Throughout the 33rd Dáil, Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin, Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil, and Leo Varadkar of Fine Gael were prominent leaders. In a historic partnership between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (known rivals), Varadkar and Martin frequently rotated between the roles of Taoiseach and Tánaiste, with Simon Harris briefly stepping in as Taoiseach when Varadkar resigned in April. Amid growing disillusionment with the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil-Green Party coalition and criticism of Varadkar and Martin’s handling of key issues like housing, Sinn Féin has gained support, as its strengths lie in its strong positions on housing, social equality , healthcare, and its growing appeal among younger voters .
Housing remains a key issue for voters in the upcoming election. In the Spring 2024 Eurobarometer poll, 64% of respondents in Ireland listed housing as one of the top two most critical issues facing the country[1 ] . The housing shortage has deeply affected much of the country, with rising housing prices and rents nationwide. This highlights the failure of the current coalition to meet housing targets, prompting calls for greater support for other parties. Politicians from opposition parties have criticised the coalition’s lack of action, with Peadar Tóibín (Aontú) stating: “The government cannot continue to pretend that they’re trying their best or that we’re making small progress – this is not true. We are experiencing regression. For every day this government has been in office, the situation has been getting worse”[2] .
Healthcare is another key issue in this election, as Ireland struggles with some of the longest healthcare waiting times in Europe, including over 18-month waiting lists for specialist services. Access to healthcare remains a significant concern for voters[3].
As no party is predicted to secure the 81-seat majority required, it seems quite likely that the 34th Dáil will be a coalition, following the results of past elections. While they are still expected to fall behind Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in terms of total numbers, Sinn Féin, the biggest opposition party, is expected to gain a sizable number of seats [4]. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have previously collaborated in coalitions, but their declining support may lead them to look for new alliances, possibly with independents or smaller progressive parties. However, this situation might be altered by Sinn Féin’s increasing popularity, which would allow them to create a left-wing coalition if they gain enough support.
As younger voters, increasingly concerned about issues such as housing, employment, healthcare, and education accessibility and costs, lean toward parties like Sinn Féin, a rural-urban divide may become evident in this year’s election. Rural voters may support more traditional parties, which focus on local issues such as infrastructure and economic development. However, Sinn Féin’s progressive policies could leave rural voters feeling disconnected, as they lack the same employment opportunities and access to services found in urban areas.
In conclusion, the 2024 Irish general election will likely result in a coalition government, with Sinn Féin gaining ground amid dissatisfaction with the current coalition’s handling of key issues like housing and healthcare. As younger voters lean toward progressive policies and rural-urban divides remain, the election outcome will shape Ireland’s future direction, both domestically and within the EU. However, all will be revealed as the voting begins on November 29th, with the outcome set to reshape Ireland’s political landscape.
Sources:
[1] Doherty, Tomas. 2024. “Election Issues: Ireland’s Housing Crisis – Check Prices, Rents and New Builds in Your Area.” BreakingNews.ie. November 11, 2024. https://www.breakingnews.ie/explained/election-issues-irelands-housing-crisis-check-prices-rents-and-new-builds-in-your-area-1675241.html.
[3] Justice, Social. 2024. “Election 2024 – Healthcare | Social Justice Ireland.” Social Justice Ireland. November 20, 2024. https://www.socialjustice.ie/article/election-2024-healthcare
