US Presidential Election 2024: ‘The state of the union is not good’
By Luke Collins
Although Gerald Ford was talking about America in 1975 when he made this remark at a State of the Union Address, he might as well have been talking about America in 2024. With the nation hopelessly divided in a never-ending culture war, Americans are preparing to go the voting booths once again to decide who their next leader shall be. Whatever choice they make will be a historic choice; either Kamala Harris will become America’s first female president, its second black president and first president of Indian heritage or Donald Trump will become the first president to have two non-consecutive terms in office since Grover Cleveland who having lost the election in 1888 bounced back to become President in 1894.
On paper, the choice should be easy. On the Republican ticket is a twice-impeached, criminally convicted self-appointed fascist who promises to be a dictator on day one and on the Democrat ticket is a woman whose biggest crime is not being able to prove she worked at McDonald’s over 40 years ago. The most recent poll in the Silver Bulletin founded by political polling data expert Nate Silver has Harris winning by a 1.1% margin (48.5% to 47.4% respectively) but most betting companies such as Polymarket are preparing for Trump to make his return to the White House after recent polls favoured him. This presidential election is a coin toss but why? For all of Trump’s wrongdoings, up until the Covid-19 pandemic, the US economy was doing pretty well and there were no new wars during his presidency. Harris has inherited the problems currently plaguing the Biden administration including rising inflation, the border crisis and the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and America seemingly has no idea what her presidency would be like. There is also the unusual way she was effectively handed the Democrat nomination after Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July.
However, it’s important not to pin the failures or the successes of the Biden presidency on Harris. She has outlined her views on some policies clearer than Trump who claimed during their debate that he had ‘concepts of a plan’. On abortion, Harris pledges to continue fighting for abortion rights after the overturn of Roe v Wade in 2022 while Trump’s promises to ‘protect women whether they like it or not’ suggests that he may introduce a nationwide ban.
Many of Trump’s claims are exaggerated; he claims that he created the ‘greatest economy in the history of the country’ but he inherited a strong economy under his predecessor Barack Obama and continued growth until the country went into lockdown in 2020. Although inflation is currently high in America the economy is actually doing well under Biden as unemployment levels are low, and GDP has remained strong. Americans are also struggling to wipe the bad taste of the end of the Trump presidency out of their mouths as Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election result culminating in the insurrection on Capitol Hill on January 6th by a violent mob of Trump supporters is fresh in the minds of many Americans. Trump is also a convicted felon with 34 counts of falsifying business records which might have prevented him from running for president again if not for the US Supreme Court’s controversial ruling in July granting him immunity from legal prosecution. His unwavering supporters claim that this is a witch hunt against him which Trump use to his advantage. Some young Democrats won’t vote for Harris due to her support for Israel even though Trump’s policy on Gaza would allow Netanyahu to do whatever he wants in the West Bank similar to his Ukraine stance as he would allegedly give Putin free reign in Ukraine.
There has been many gaffes during this campaign. Trump’s McDonald’s PR stunt on the 20th of October was confusing with MSNBC later revealing that the McDonald’s was shut down for his visit and the people being served the food were pre-selected by the Trump campaign team. There was the disturbing comments made by Trump’s former chief-of-staff and retired Marine General John Kelly that Trump once stated that he needed generals such as ‘Hitler’s generals’. The disastrous Madison Square Garden rally on the 27th of October was engulfed in a litany of racist, misogynistic, bigoted remarks made by some of the speakers including comedian Tony Hinchcliffe calling Puerto Rico which is U.S territory ‘a floating island of garbage’. On Thursday night, Trump responded to former Republican representative Liz Cheney endorsing Kamala Harris by conjuring up a violent fantasy of her being shot. The Harris campaign has dealt with its own problems most notably, President Biden’s confusing response to Hinchcliffe’s comments ‘the only garbage I see floating out there are his supporters’ which has been weaponised by Trump and his supporters as an attack on ‘half of America’ and Harris has faced criticism that her campaign has ran out of steam. It seems that as the campaigning draws to a close, Americans just want the show to end.
This has undoubtedly been one of the most memorable election campaigns in American history. Trump has been the first president since the aforementioned Ford to face two assassination attempts. President Biden’s decision to not accept his party’s nomination nearly a month after his disastrous performance in the Presidential debate against Trump is the latest withdrawal from a presidential nominee in American history. Kamala Harris quickly assuming the Democrat nomination amidst a wave of support for the Vice-President (seemingly being helped by Charlie XCX who tweeted ‘Kamala is brat’), contrasting celebrity endorsements with Harris having the full support of Bruce Springsteen and Taylor Swift while Trump’s celebrity endorsements include Hulk Hogan and tech billionaire Elon Musk. In terms of running mates, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has proven to be a less controversial choice than Ohio Senator J.D. Vance who once called top female members of the Democrat Party ‘childless cat ladies’ and there was the debate between Harris and Trump in October in which Trump claimed that immigrants in Springfield were ‘eating the dogs and cats’, which was met with a flurry of memes mocking this unproven statement.
So how does the election affect this part of the world? A recent YouGov poll conducted in September divided the UK into 12 regions and asked who they would vote for in the presidential election. Every region including Northern Ireland stated they would vote for Harris. There was the controversy surrounding Trump accusing the Labour Party of ‘foreign interference’ in the election as some Labour Party members volunteered to campaign for Harris. There is also concern over how this election would affect the Northern Ireland Protocol which President Biden supported putting him at odds with the DUP. Biden encouraged the DUP to return to power-sharing in a speech made during his visit to Belfast last year. Kamala Harris’ views on Ireland are similar to Biden’s, but many are worried about what that the return of Trump to the presidency could mean for politics in Northern Ireland. Out of the five main political parties in Northern Ireland, the DUP are the only party that openly support Trump. Many influential American politicians in Northern Ireland have opposed Trump including US Ambassador to NI Joe Kennedy grandson of President John F. Kennedy who has been well-liked by the country since his appointment and opposed his uncle Robert Kennedy Jr who ran as a third-party candidate before dropping out of the race in July to endorse Trump. Queens’ very own Chancellor Secretary Hillary Clinton is no stranger to Trump having lost against him in 2016. She and her husband Bill have openly endorsed Harris. There are parallels between Clinton and Harris, both being the only female presidential candidates and having both ran against the same man who has made misogynistic comments about them, but Harris will hope she fares better than Clinton did.
Many Americans living in Northern Ireland have expressed great concern with their country being hopelessly divided and increasing polarisation in America has affected personal relationships. At this moment, America is hopelessly divided and no matter who becomes President in January next year, tensions will still prevail.
